Annual survey 2013

Natural Gas in the World 2013 (Released - 28 November 2013)

 

The 2013 Edition of Natural Gas in the World by CEDIGAZ was released on 28 November. Building on CEDIGAZ's unique natural gas statistical database, this 170-page study, published since 1983, provides an in-depth analysis of the latest developments in the gas markets along with the most complete set of statistical data on the whole gas chain covering close to 130 countries.

Topics covered by Natural Gas in the World 2013 include :

  • proved natural gas reserves
  • unconventional gas status in the world
  • gross and marketed natural gas production
  • the international gas trade
  • existing and planned underground gas storage facilities in the world
  • natural gas consumption
  • natural gas prices

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CONSTRAINED BY ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL ISSUES, GROWTH SLOWS DOWN IN THE NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY


Natural gas proved reserves reMAIN STABLE

Worldwide proved natural gas reserves remained stable in 2012. On January 1, 2013, reserves were estimated by Cedigaz at 199 857 bcm, compared to 199 836 bcm one year before.
At regional level, the highest increase in absolute terms was recorded in the Middle East with a growth of 203 bcm representing only a 0.3% gain over last year's estimate, while the highest decrease was reported in North America (-314 bcm or -2.7%), because of downward revisions due to low gas prices. OPEC countries control about half of the world's gas reserves (48%) and CIS countries account for almost another third (32%). Three countries (Russia, Iran and Qatar) hold more than half (54%) of all recorded gas reserves while the top ten reserves holders own almost 80% of the total.

Proved natural gas reserves in the world               as of 1 January 2013

   

Natural gas productioN growth SLOWs DOWN

World gross production increased 1.8% in 2012 to 4186 bcm.
Quantities of reinjected gas diminished strongly, and accounted for 10% of gross production.
The recent increase in natural gas flaring was partly driven by some OPEC countries like Iraq and Venezuela.
The volume shrinkage was 3% higher than the previous year's level and is for more than 50% concentrated in five countries, chiefly the United States.
As a result of these developments, world marketed production, which accounted for 80% of gross production, increased quite significantly by 2.3% to reach a new record level of  3350 bcm. However, this growth is slower than the last ten-year average (2.7%/year) in a less favourable economic environment.According to CEDIGAZ, the growth in world gas supply will continue to slow in 2013.

World balance of natural gas production

 

International gas trade WEAKENS

In 2012, the international gas trade including LNG reloads reached 1026 bcm, a 0.6% decrease from 2011.
The international gas trade was affected by the exceptional drop in global LNG supply, resulting in global market tightness. The tightness of the LNG market, which is exacerbated by increased demand in Asia Oceania and South America, is likely to last in the next three years, according to CEDIGAZ.The inter-regional trade declined 3.4% in 2012, a reflection of the drop of the European gas needs, which strongly impacted Russia's exports. The dramatic drop in European's imports from extra-regional sources failed to compensate for the continuous growth of  long-distance LNG deliveries from the Middle East to the fast-growing Asian market.


Evolution of inter-regional gas trade

 

Evolution of international LNG trade

 

Natural gas consumption PULLED BY EMERGING MARKETS, ESPECIALLY ASIA

According to CEDIGAZ, natural gas share in the world primary energy mix edged up to 21.5% in 2012, as world natural gas consumption grew at a faster pace than total energy consumption.
Non-OECD emerging countries, located in Asia and the Middle East in particular, continued to lead global natural gas growth.
Asia has remained the fastest growing regional market for the last few years, under the impulsion of emerging economies, chiefly China.
In addition, North America was the second-fastest growing consumer market (in volume terms) for the second consecutive year, as the growing economic advantages of gas resulting from the shale gas boom in the US strongly drove up gas consumption.Consumption in 2012 declined in Europe for the second consecutive year, although at a slower pace than 2011. In contrast to the previous year in which the milder weather had the biggest impact on demand, the 2012 decline was all the more worrying as it mainly resulted from an adverse economic and pricing environment.

Evolution of natural gas consumption (2007-2012)

 

regional gas prices differentials PERSIST

In 2012, gas price differentials between the three main regional markets (United States, Europe, and Japan) widened further and the spread between regional gas prices has never been so great. The surge in the Japanese LNG price reflected the rise in the oil price. In Europe, the average gas price of long-term contracts (which include a share of spot indexation) was also pushed up by both the rise in the Brent price and the NBP spot price. In the US, the Henry Hub plunged more than 30%, as producers pursued production of shale gas and maintain ample supply.In 2013, the trend of diverging regional gas prices, observed since 2009, has remained a common feature, and outside North America, natural gas and LNG prices are expected to remain at high levels.


Divergence of international gas prices

 

Natural Gas in the World 2013 is available to non members in PDF format (990 euros - VAT excluded):
order online or download the order form