The provisional NBP price for September was €20.6/MWh ($7.9/MBtu), up nearly 18% in one month, but down 23% compared to the situation one year ago (€26.6/MWh). This change in the NBP is due to several factors. The change is primarily related to the significant downward correction in prices in June and July (€16/17/MWh) which usually results in reverse financial movements when there is excess. This was the case when the price fell slightly below the coal equilibrium price. The second increase factor is related to the
Since the beginning of the year, Brent has varied between $98/B (September) and $115/B (at the beginning of June), which is fairly close to the extremes seen in 2013. The anticipated average for 2014, which has fluctuated between $105 and $110/B, is currently situated at $105/B, slightly down on 2013 ($108.60/B). Movements the price of Brent remain highly uncertain in the light of possible influencing factors: whether or not there is an increase in exports from Libya; whether or not negotiations with Iran on nuclear power are successful (deadline postponed to 24 November); whether or not the insurgents in Iraq affect production and exports in the south of the country; whether or not the tension in Ukraine escalates; the dollar exchange rate (increasing against the Euro since May, a factor depressing the oil price); the global economic climate (increased growth expected in 2015) and the outlook for the stock exchanges. The field of factors affecting the price of Brent is therefore obviously very wide. In any case, the increase in US production due to shale oil is playing a moderating role and partly explains the slight decline experienced since 2012.
The average NBP price for July was €16.2/MWh ($6.4/MBtu), 3.6% less than the previous month and 37% less than the same month last year. The NBP was marked by relatively high volatility, around +/-10%. It fell to a low of €14.8/MWh ($5.9/MBtu) on 11 July before climbing to nearly €18/MWh ($7.0/MBtu) on 28 July. This increase coincided with rising tensions between Russia and the Western countries, with stiffer sanctions imposed by the US on 16 July and then by the Europeans on 28 July. However, it should be noted that pressure remains moderate for now. In fact, the NBP is significantly lower than it was during the past three summers (€21 to €26/MWh on average).
Future trends remain very uncertain given the many possible scenarios regarding Ukraine (whether or not gas transit via Ukraine will be impacted, Russian exports disrupted, etc.). Relative to the beginning of July, the market is gradually adjusting the trends for the coming months upwards, particularly for the winter. Future prices are now around €27/MWh from December to next March.