CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas, has just released its « Medium and Long Term Natural Gas Outlook 2018 ». In CEDIGAZ Reference Scenario, which incorporates national energy plans and INDC commitments, natural gas demand will grow by 1.4%/year between 2016 and 2040 and will play a growing role in the energy mix at the expense of the other fossil fuels. The gradual shift from coal and oil to natural gas and renewables helps reduce the carbon intensity of the energy system as electrification and decarbonisation accelerate over the projection period. The expansion of natural gas markets is supported by both abundant and competitive conventional and unconventional resources, as well as a very rapid growth of spot and flexible LNG trade.

Natural Gas Will Play a Growing Role in a Gradually Decarbonising Energy System But Strong Political Action Is Currently Needed To Promote Coal-To-Gas Switching Worldwide

CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas Information, has just released its « Medium and Long Term Natural Gas Outlook 2016 ». This scenario, which incorporates key objectives of current and also planned national energy policies, highlights the growing role of natural gas as a bridge fuel towards a long-term increasingly renewable-based, efficient and sustainable energy system. Given the vast low-cost coal resources, the future expansion of natural gas in the global energy mix will be driven by the implementation of energy and environmental policies aiming to shift away from coal and oil to cleaner fuels within the context of a gradually decarbonising electricity system. In this scenario, the future global natural gas expansion is supported by strong supply growth, particularly of unconventional gas and LNG, in a context of rising prices as energy markets re-balance. CEDIGAZ Scenario’s trajectory is on a 3°C path, with energy-related CO2 emissions increasing by 0.3%/year on average, reaching almost 35 Gt over the 2030-2035 period.

Latest developments of the Egyptian gas industry

Egyptian marketed natural gas production has been steadily declining since 2009, as a result of the depletion of offshore mature gas fields and delays in new offshore developments (West Nile Delta), exacerbated by the political unrest. This downturn accelerated in 2013 (- 6%) and even further in 2014 (- 14%). In 2015, marketed production is estimated down 8.9% to 44.5 bcm, according to Cedigaz provisional estimates.

In a context of production shortfall, natural gas consumption declined from 52 bcm in 2013 to 48 bcm in 2014. In 2015, natural gas consumption stabilized despite the production decline as Egypt started importing gas after soaring power demand forced it to halt LNG exports.