In a volatile and unstable economic and geopolitical context, global natural gas consumption grew at a modest rate of 0.7% to 4181 bcm in 2025, translating to around 31 bcm of additional consumption, according to Cedigaz first estimates. This represents a notable slowdown in natural gas demand growth from 2024, when it surged by 2.7%. In the first half of the year, high spot LNG prices, weak industrial activity in price-sensitive sectors and unseasonably mild weather across Northeast Asia weighed on natural gas demand. However, natural gas demand accelerated during the second half of the year amid easing market conditions due to a pronounced rebound of LNG supply. Indeed, the year 2025 marked the biggest jump in LNG supply since 2019. Thanks to the strong expansion of flexible LNG, driven by the United States, natural gas markets are increasingly intertwined with broader global security challenges. Spot LNG price signals played a crucial role in the reorientation of LNG cargoes from Asia to Europe. The European gas supply is increasingly dependent on flexible LNG supply to replace piped volumes lost from Russia and replenish storage ahead of winter. The year 2025 emphasized the key role of natural gas in the electricity sector for balancing out renewable energy sources in both emerging and advanced economies.
Analysis
Qatar LNG under constraint: capacity loss and export dislocation
By Irina Mironova for Cedigaz
Qatar’s LNG system has been materially disrupted following the escalation in the Middle East after February 28, 2026. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and direct attacks on energy infrastructure have cut off export flows and constrained production.
Status update on Qatari capacity
At the liquefaction level, two trains (QELNG South 2 Train 4 and QELNG South 3 Train 6) have been taken out of service, removing approximately 12.8 mtpa – around 17% of Qatar’s capacity. The damage involves critical components such as main cryogenic heat exchangers, implying long lead times for replacement and extended outages of at least three years, and potentially up to five. QatarEnergy estimates the impact at around $20 billion per year in lost revenue.
From supply wave to supply gap: LNG market under Gulf disruption
By Irina Mironova for Cedigaz
Recent attacks on Qatar’s LNG infrastructure have taken two liquefaction trains out of service, removing approximately 12.8 mtpa (~17% of Qatar’s capacity) for an estimated three to five years.
This development intensifies the disruption seen in recent weeks, centred on the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries around 20% of global LNG trade. Maritime constraints have already translated into both physical supply losses and logistical bottlenecks, with LNG carriers unable to exit the Gulf and export flows significantly constrained.
The crisis has now shifted into a structural supply loss, extending beyond the short-term disruption scenarios considered earlier.