Analysis

Qatar LNG under constraint: capacity loss and export dislocation

Posted in Analysis, LNG on

By Irina Mironova for Cedigaz

Qatar’s LNG system has been materially disrupted following the escalation in the Middle East after February 28, 2026. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and direct attacks on energy infrastructure have cut off export flows and constrained production.

Status update on Qatari capacity

At the liquefaction level, two trains (QELNG South 2 Train 4 and QELNG South 3 Train 6) have been taken out of service, removing approximately 12.8 mtpa – around 17% of Qatar’s capacity. The damage involves critical components such as main cryogenic heat exchangers, implying long lead times for replacement and extended outages of at least three years, and potentially up to five. QatarEnergy estimates the impact at around $20 billion per year in lost revenue.

From supply wave to supply gap: LNG market under Gulf disruption

Posted in Analysis, LNG, LNG report, LNG Terminals on

By Irina Mironova for Cedigaz

Recent attacks on Qatar’s LNG infrastructure have taken two liquefaction trains out of service, removing approximately 12.8 mtpa (~17% of Qatar’s capacity) for an estimated three to five years.

This development intensifies the disruption seen in recent weeks, centred on the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries around 20% of global LNG trade. Maritime constraints have already translated into both physical supply losses and logistical bottlenecks, with LNG carriers unable to exit the Gulf and export flows significantly constrained.

The crisis has now shifted into a structural supply loss, extending beyond the short-term disruption scenarios considered earlier.