International Gas Prices – May 7 , 2015

NBP: A return of the 2014 scenario?

NBP and Coal priceThe NBP price averaged €22.1/MWh ($7.0/MBtu) in April, down by 1% over March. There is greater downward pressure on the quotations for early May, which are at €20.9/MWh ($6.8/MBtu), close to the levels predicted by the markets for this summer (€20.4/MWh on average). A return of the 2014 scenario, with its sharp drop in prices during the summer (€16-17/MWh between June and August 2014) remains possible this year: demand is lower than in the past, especially in the power sector (20 bcm since 2012 compared to 30-35 bcm before then; the market share for natural gas has fallen from 41% in 2011 to 29%; renewable energies are up from 9 to 17%).

2014: A SECOND YEAR OF MODERATE GROWTH OF GLOBAL GAS ACTIVITY

2014 has been a very mixed year for natural gas, according to the First Estimates 2014 released by the International Association CEDIGAZ today. For the second consecutive year, gas demand slowed down in 2014, with subdued activity in the global gas industry at all stages of the chain.

Top1 consumming countriesGlobal natural gas consumption (including storage variations) was sluggish in 2014 and remained at a quite similar level than in 2013. This can be explained by increased competition between energies, especially coal, the economic slowdown (Europe, China, Russia…), geopolitical turmoil (Russia-Ukraine conflict) and the mild weather conditions which negatively impacted the expansion of gas demand (Europe, Asia). The global consumption trend showed regional disparities. Natural gas demand in North America and the Middle East continued to register strong expansion, but the growth in Asia slowed down, while consumption in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Europe declined dramatically. Plummeting consumption in Europe (- 10%) in particular weighed significantly on the overall trend.

Shell’s acquisition of BG: the global LNG leader cannot do without internal growth

In 2014, the purchase of Repsol’s LNG assets in Peru and Trinidad and Tobago brought Shell an additional 4.3 mmtpa in liquefaction capacity and strengthened its global leadership in the LNG upstream sector. With the $70 billion takeover of BG, the Anglo-Dutch major is about to become the unquestionable leader, thanks to the world’s largest and most diverse portfolio. BG’s contracts will provide the company with an unprecedented coverage of global markets, but Shell has to keep developing LNG projects, as the medium- and long-term production of BG’s assets is uncertain.