CEDIGAZ 2035 LNG Outlook – New projects needed after 2023


  • Total effective capacity[1] is expected to increase significantly from 244 mmtpa in 2015 to 387 mmtpa in 2021 (+60%). Subsequently, effective capacity from facilities currently operational or under-construction should progressively decrease to reach 354 mmtpa by 2035 due to the aging of some assets and gas shortages in some producing countries. Demand will struggle to keep up with supply ramp-up at the beginning of the projection period and an over-supply situation should prevail. Rebalancing of the market is not expected before 2023, or even 2024 if probable developments (Fortuna FLNG) and potential upside from currently idle capacity (Egypt, Yemen) are taken into account. After that, the continuous growth of the LNG market will leave a large margin for the implementation of new projects.

    Effective Capacity vs LNG demand

    (1): Equatorial Guine      (2): Egypt, Yemen

  • Three main regions stand out: Asia-Oceania, the Middle East and North America. Effective liquefaction capacity in Asia-Oceania is expected to see a significant increase reaching a plateau between 2019 and 2023 and then decreasing until 2035. Capacity in the Middle East remains broadly stable throughout the period with just over 90 mmtpa of effective liquefaction capacity, although Qatar’s recent announcement calling for a 30% production growth to 2024 could change the game. In North America the stepping up of United States’ LNG will constitute a major upheaval, with a total liquefaction capacity expected to reach 66 mmtpa by 2021 (Canada included).
  • LNG capacity in Africa and the CIS should remain stable after a slight increase at the beginning of the projection period. Stability is also expected in Europe, while effective capacity will gradually decrease in South & Central America due to growing constraints on feedstock as Trinidad and Tobago’s gas reserves dwindle.

    Effective liquefaction Capacity vs LNG demand by region

Eastern Asian LNG gross imports increased by 3.4% in 2016

LNG gross imports in Eastern AsiaLNG imports in Japan, South Korea, China and Taiwan reached a total of 157.9 Mt in 2016, increasing by 3.4% compared to 2015 (152.7 Mt). This growth came mainly from China where imports surged by 33% year-on-year and to a lesser extent from Taiwan (+2.7%). In the meantime, imports of the world’s two largest consumers of LNG – Japan and South Korea – changed by -2% and +0.2%, respectively.


Cedigaz is pleased to announce the release of the latest update of its LNG databases on Liquefaction plants, Regasification terminals and Long-term contracts have been updated. You will find below a summary of the most important developments that were included in the databases in Q1 2016.

Liquefaction projects:

The most significant event in Q1 2016, is indisputably the shipment of the first US LNG cargo from Cheniere’s Sabine Pass project in February. In Australia, Chevron started producing LNG and condensate at its 15.6 Mmtpa Gorgon LNG project. The first shipment of LNG has left Barrow Island, bound for Japan. The two additional 5.2 Mmtpa trains will be progressively commissioned throughout 2016-2017. In Indonesia, the startup of the Sengkang LNG project has been pushed back by one year and we now expect it to start commercial production in 2017. Depressed prices have continued to weigh on project development. In Australia, Woodside decided to freeze the Browse FLNG project. In Indonesia, the Abadi project, another large FLNG, was postponed and will be probably be redesigned as an onshore project. In Colombia, financially embattled PEP has canceled its FLNG project and in Canada, Altagas has announced the postponement of the Douglas Channel LNG projects in Canada.