CEDIGAZ, the International Information Center on Natural Gas, has just released its « Medium and Long Term Natural Gas and LNG Outlooks 2020 ». Cedigaz Scenario assumes the effective realisation of official energy plans and climate policy targets. It is built upon the implementation of strong energy efficiency programmes and the expansion of low carbon technologies. It highlights that natural gas will play a growing role in the world energy mix to meet both the growing energy demand and climate policy targets. The future expansion of natural gas in the energy mix is driven by the competitiveness and abundance of resources in gas-rich countries (North America, Russia, Middle East… ), which will expand LNG export capacities required to meet the growing gas demand, especially in emerging Asian markets. Despite a post-pandemic recovery assumed post-2021, the Covid-19 pandemic has a meaningful impact on the economy, investments, energy prices and gas demand in the short and medium term. Therefore, the future expansion of gas in the next two decades is conditioned on the timely materialization of investments, especially in the upstream and LNG business, which represents a key challenge in a context of low oil and gas prices.
This memo aims to resume tracking of drilling activity at U.S. shale oil basins to assess how production has been impacted by the unprecedented drop in E&P activity due to Covid-19 and the fall of the barrel price in March. Three scenarios based on drilling activity and well productivity are analyzed for the purpose of estimating 2021 production at the 7 main producing basins, including the Permian Basin. The production figures from our scenarios, which includes only production from shale are compared to EIA’s scenarios which gives global production figures without distinguishing between shale production and conventional production.
This memo does not account for any new effects of Covid-19, e.g. the occurrence of a second wave during the winter of 2020-21 that would further reduce demand for oil and gas, cause prices to fall again and impact drilling activity in the United States.
CEDIGAZ, the International Information Center on Natural Gas, has just released its « Medium and Long Term Natural Gas Outlook 2019 ». Cedigaz Scenario incorporates government ambitions in the context of the energy transition that is underway. It is built upon the implementation of strong energy efficiency programmes and increased diversification of the energy mix based on the NDCs. Cedigaz Outlook 2019 highlights that natural gas has a crucial role to play to support the energy transition and meet all targets of the NDCs. However, this will not be enough to reach the +2°C target: emissions in the Cedigaz scenario would put the world closer to a +3°C path. The future expansion of natural gas in the energy mix is driven by the competitiveness and abundance of gas resources in gas-rich markets (North America, Russia, Middle East, Mozambique), which will expand LNG export capabilities. Positive developments of unconventional gas, especially in the US, and liquefied natural gas markets will continue to reshape natural gas supplies.