Not a single US LNG cargo transited the Panama Canal during the first three weeks of November, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data, as the arbitrage window prompted most tankers to head to Europe rather than Asia.
In November, the Henry Hub–TTF spread stayed wide enough to keep the US‑to‑Europe arbitrage open, while the Henry Hub–JKM spread was tighter and increasingly less attractive for long-haul US cargoes into Asia.
- TTF prices traded in the low‑ to mid‑$10/MMBtu range through November, well above Henry Hub, which stayed below $4/MMBtu. This put the Henry Hub-TTF differential in the $5-7/MMBtu range, leaving a positive netback after liquefaction cost and freight is factored in.
- JKM spot prices, meanwhile, traded in the low 11 $/MMBtu range – only marginally above TTF prices, which rendered netbacks for shipping US LNG to Asia unattractive once Panama Canal transit fees, freight and longer voyage times are counted for.
Transits of US LNG tankers through the Panama Canal fell to just three in November, down from four in October – though these low number are up from just one crossing in September, owing to rising seasonal demand during the northern hemisphere winter.
On November 23, the first laden transit through the Panama Canal for this month was completion by the ‘Celsius Galway’, carrying a cargo from Sabine Pass LNG. Meanwhile, the Mitsui-chartered ‘Marvel Swan’ completed the second LNG tanker transit through the channel on November 24. The carrier loaded at Cameron LNG terminal in Louisiana and is reportedly due to arrive at Chita, Japan, on December 17.
The third and latest transit of the month was made by NFE-chartered ‘Gas Log Singapore’ on November 29. The tanker loaded at NFE’s Altamira floating LNG terminal on the Mexican Gulf Coast, with its cargo headed to the La Paz regas terminal where it arrived on December 6. Now, the tanker is reportedly headed back, having last been tracked as heading towards the Panama Canal, supposedly for picking up another US LNG cargo.
Most US LNG destined to Asia – 18 of the tracked 20 cargoes – are currently taking the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope. Considering the charges shippers have to pay for a transit slot through the Panama Canal, the transit through this waterway typically picks up only when the price arbitrage between the US Henry Hub and the JKM [Japan-Korea-Marker] for Northeast Asian LNG prices is high enough. (December 9, 2025, Source: https://lngjournal.com/index.php/latest-news-mainmenu-47/item/115053-panama-canal-transits-fall-as-more-us-lng-heads-to-europe)
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