Asian LNG buyers have diverted at least eight Atlantic Basin cargoes away from Europe, since the Middle East war began 28th February, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data.
This escalation has lifted global LNG prices on fears of tighter Atlantic Basin supply, just as Europe enters its gas storage injection season.
"I think we will start to see the real aftermath in the next few weeks, on the one hand Asia will likely burn as much coal as they can, but there'll be pockets of demand they have to fill, and they'll need the LNG over peak summer seasons ..." an Atlantic-based trader said, talking with S&P Global. "Even if storage targets are relaxed, the risk just gets pushed to winter, so Europe will be competing in Q3 and Q4 for the extra cargoes."
Adding to the previous diversions recorded, the TotalEnergies-chartered LNGC ‘Point Fortin’, which loaded at Freeport's LNG facility in Texas on 7th March was seen conducting a two-port discharge, first delivering to a Jamaican FSRU on 11th March and departing the same day towards Europe.
According to data from S&P Global Energy CERA, ‘Point Fortin’ loaded 3.21 bill cu ft from Freeport LNG and unloaded roughly 8% of her cargo, or 0.28 bill cu ft, to FSRU, with the remainder still on board.
The ship was then seen heading south, potentially heading towards the Cape of Good Hope. However, until recently, it was recorded idling near the coast of Senegal, according to CAS data.
Also on 19th March, the TotalEnergies-chartered, 'La Seine', after loading at Venture Global's Plaquemines LNG Plant, was reported to have diverted from Europe towards the Cape of Good Hope, CAS data showed.
"[Arbitrage] through Panama is open, so any cargoes that can pay up will want to likely take it through there; otherwise, you will see cargoes for April and May still head to Europe, there's some diversions, but a lot of volume is still in the Atlantic," a second Atlantic Basin-based trader said.
In another trade‑flow shift, the QatarEnergy‑chartered ‘Bu Fintas’, which loaded at the Plaquemines LNG facility and may have partially discharged at Sergipe in Brazil, continued her voyage toward Asia without indicating a final destination, CAS data showed.
Despite these diversions, freight rates through the Panama Canal to Asia are at more competitive rates of $2.81 per MMBtu from the US Gulf Coast, compared with via the Cape of Good Hope at $4.01 per MMBtu, Platts data showed.
LNG netbacks from DES JKM to a US Gulf Coast FOB basis were estimated at $18.95 per MMBtu via the Cape of Good Hope, assuming 2-stroke ship freight costs of $4.01 per MMBtu, and $20.15 per MMBtu via the Panama Canal, reflecting freight costs of $2.81 per MMBtu, Platts data showed.
By comparison, the netback from DES Northwest Europe to US FOB was $17.83 per MMBtu on 23rd March, implying a $2.32 per MMBtu discount to the DES JKM netback via the Panama Canal. As a result, a US FOB cargo could gain an implied $2.32 per MMBtu premium over European delivered prices, equating to over $8 mill on a standard large‑scale LNGC.
Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the DES Northwest Europe for May at $19.143 per MMBtu on 23rd March, down 56 cents day-on-day and roughly 15% higher week-on-week.
Platts assessed the benchmark price for LNG delivered into Northeast Asia at $20.683 per MMBtu on 24th March, down $2.277 per MMBtu d-o-d, but 2.60% higher w-o-w and 94% above pre‑war levels of $10.697 per MMBtu recorded on 27th February. (March 25, 2026, Source: https://lngjournal.com/index.php/latest-news-mainmenu-47/item/115893-global-lng-prices-rise-as-lngc-diversions-increase)
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