Shale gas production in the US is projected to surge by up to 40% as American supply fills the gap caused by force majeure on Qatari LNG shipments. Analysts expect US LNG to double, exceeding 30 billion cubic feet per day by 2050.
Dry gas production already accounted for 38% of total US energy production but that share is bound to increase substantially over the next several decades to meet both domestic demand for power generation and feedgas demand for LNG exports.
Most of the substantial growth in US shale gas production is set to serve international markets. Buyers are rushing to secure LNG from American projects after QatarEnergy declared force majeure on long-term contracts to Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China after Iranian missile strikes rendered around 17% of Qatar's liquefaction capacity inoperable for three to five years. US LNG is key to fill the gap, government analysts project in their Annual Energy Outlook 2026.
Exports are highest in the ‘Combination Case’, where both transportation policies aimed at reducing tailpipe emissions and electricity market policies aimed at curbing emissions from fossil generation are not in place. The absence of stringent clean energy policies, in contrast, would increase liquids consumption and Brent crude oil prices which makes US LNG more economically competitive, given that it not oil-indexed but sold linked to US spot market prices.
Lower power demand from electric vehicles also frees up natural gas that might otherwise be used in electricity generation for export as LNG. Absence of the power market policies is “less impactful for gas markets,” analysts noted, as it would allow for higher utilization of more efficient combined-cycle plants that decrease the sector’s natural gas use.
Gas-burn in the power sector alone supports increased shale gas fracking, as the Trump administration has rolled back supportive clean energy policies.
“We project electric power consumption increases by between 2.9 Bcf/d and 15.2 Bcf/d in 2050 in most cases from the 35.2 Bcf/d consumed in 2025, more growth than in any other domestic end-use sector. Changes in policy that curb renewables deployment support growing natural gas consumption in the electric power sector,” analysts pointed out.
Come 2050, domestic gas consumption in the US could reach more than 108 Bcf/d, up from currently 90.8 Bcf/d. Much depends on electricity demand for transport.
Lower power demand from electric vehicles could reduce utilities gas demand by around 10 Bcf/d – of which about 7 Bcf/d would be used as feedgas for liquefaction and export. The remaining 3 Bcf/d difference “is not absorbed by another market,” analysts reckon, leading to lower US dry gas production and in the event of a fast EV uptake. (April 13, 2026, Source: https://lngjournal.com/index.php/latest-news-mainmenu-47/item/116024-us-shale-output-surges-on-qatar-lng-disruption)
UNITED STATES - Shale Gas - Production