Portfolio players have reshaped the LNG market. Their rise has accelerated project sanctioning, deepened liquidity, and blurred the traditional boundaries between sellers and buyers. Yet the balance of risk has shifted. While projects retain revenue certainty through take-or-pay (ToP) clauses, buyers (particularly portfolio traders), now carry the market-cycle exposure. Their flexibility is valuable in tight markets but becomes a liability in periods of oversupply.
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U.S. LNG: Buyer Trust Amid the Looming Supply Glut
Irina Mironova for CEDIGAZ
While 2025 has already seen a record-breaking 60+ Mtpa of U.S. LNG export capacity sanctioned through final investment decisions (FIDs), recent execution delays and contract disputes are revealing cracks in the U.S. LNG export model.
A series of major projects have advanced to FID in recent months (see Table). Yet, not all signals are bullish. Notably, Energy Transfer postponed its long-anticipated FID on Lake Charles LNG to Q1 2026, citing construction cost inflation and slower finalization of sales and purchase agreements (SPAs).
CEDIGAZ First Estimates 2025
After enduring a prolonged and unprecedented series of shocks, the global natural gas demand resumed its steady growth trajectory
In 2024, global natural gas demand was estimated to have recorded a strong 2.9% growth, to stand at a new record of 4166 bcm, representing an annual incremental volume of 118 bcm. By way of comparison, growth over the pre-crisis period 2010-2019 stood at 2.4 %/year. This rebound was partly due to structural growth factors, which are expected to persist in the long term, including energy policies in favour of the expansion of gas, the booming Asian gas market, the growing role of gas as a dispatchable electricity source supporting intermittent renewables, increased use of LNG for transportation and more sudden and extreme climatic events which reinforced the crucial role of gas-fired power generation for peak load. On the supply side, global marketed natural gas production increased more moderately by 1.7% to 4159 bcm, driven predominantly by Russia, China and Norway. Despite tight LNG supplies, demand continued to grow robustly as major consumer markets tapped into their abundant stocks during periods of market tensions to ensure gas supply security and flexibility. In this context, European and Asian spot prices softened from the previous year but remained elevated. High price volatility reflected unforeseen events on both the supply and demand sides, including geopolitical tensions and extreme weather events.