Quarterly report – Q2 2021 – International natural gas prices

  • In a context of post-Covid economic recovery and an induced rebound of the prices of all energy commodities, the second quarter 2021 saw an unprecedented and steady rally of international spot prices, driven by growing European and Asian gas demand. 
  • In Europe, low gas inventories, an unseasonable and persistent cold weather as well as the highest recorded carbon prices have propelled the TTF price, which provided a strong upside to Asian spot prices. 
  • During the second quarter, Asian spot prices rose even faster than European spot prices because of surging Chinese LNG demand, rising oil prices and LNG supply outages. This results in a growing price premium to the European price. During the second half of June, Northeast Asian spot LNG prices have jumped by $2 to $13/MBtu at the end of the month, more than $10/MMBtu higher than they were this time last year and their highest levels since 2014 for the same summer period. 

Will Gas Be the Game-Changer for Oman’s Transition to a Brand New Era?

The latest report from CEDIGAZ delves into Oman’s gas and LNG success story since the late 2010s. The sultanate’s gas revival since the start-up of the Khazzan tight gas and condensate field in late 2017, combined with renewed exploration momentum on the upstream front, has opened up new possibilities for its domestic gas market and its role as one of the longest-established LNG exporters in the Gulf region and in the world.

The report examines the opportunities and the risks linked to its gas and wider energy fundamentals, be it in terms of supply and demand, policy, upstream & LNG strategy and interplay with other fuels.

Increased domestic production, combined with improved gas demand management especially in its power sector, has allowed the country to change its supply and demand balance at home and revive its LNG business, while a few years ago, Oman had contemplated mothballing some its existing liquefaction capacity.

The global natural gas activity contracted in 2020 amid the COVID-19 crisis

In the context of the COVID-19-driven economic crisis and an abnormally warm climate, global gas consumption fell 1.8% in 2020, the third decline ever recorded in the history of the global natural gas industry.  In the face of extreme volatility, driven by the evolving influence of the pandemic on energy demand throughout the year, as well as weather events and technical outages, natural gas demand, especially LNG demand, was resilient, contrary to other fossil fuels.