LNG Pricing: Is US LNG competitive in North East Asia?

Out of the 8.3 Mt of US LNG exports recorded in the first 8 months of 2017, 2.37 Mt was exported to the North East Asian countries (29%). This represents a remarkable development given the fact that the US did not send any cargo to North East Asia in 2016.

On average, US LNG has turned out to be the most expensive LNG supply source in the region, priced 18% above the average regional LNG import cost. However, a country by country analysis shows that the US LNG was indeed priced close to the average price of LNG imports for China and even lower for South Korea and Taiwan. Japan is the only country in the region which pays a price for US LNG well above both its average cost of imports ($12.26 vs $8.04, a 52% extra-cost) and regional spot price indexes.

Europe and China gave new impetus to the global gas demand in 2016

The latest statistics of the International Gas Association CEDIGAZ indicate that natural gas has pursued steady expansion. CEDIGAZ Survey Natural Gas in the World 2017 confirms the first estimates published early May, showing a 1.6% growth in global gas consumption in 2016, which is in line with the past five-year average. In recent years, the role of natural gas in the energy mix has slightly progressed, against the background of falling coal consumption and rising renewable energy production. Natural gas is expected to pursue similar growth trend in the short and medium term in the context of the energy transition towards an increasingly renewable-based, efficient and sustainable energy system.

India’s vision to a gas-based economy Drivers and Challenges

Thanks to India’s rising economy and population, the country’s outlook for growth in energy demand is robust.  The role of gas in the country’s energy mix, however, is hard to determine. Today, India’s primary energy mix is dominated by coal and oil. The role of natural gas is limited: only 6% in 2016.  But the government wants to make India a gas-based economy and raise the share of natural gas in the energy mix to 15% by 2022, although the timing remains uncertain. This paper analyses gas demand trends in India by 2025-30 and draws on two reports recently published by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) and the Bureau of Economic Geology (BEG)/Centre for Energy Economics (CEE), University of Texas.

Natural gas production, consumption and LNG imports in India (2000-2016)

                 Source: CEDIGAZ