Analysis - Page 10

Latest developments of the Egyptian gas industry

Posted in Analysis, Country Report, LNG Markets, Natural Gas Market on

Egyptian marketed natural gas production has been steadily declining since 2009, as a result of the depletion of offshore mature gas fields and delays in new offshore developments (West Nile Delta), exacerbated by the political unrest. This downturn accelerated in 2013 (- 6%) and even further in 2014 (- 14%). In 2015, marketed production is estimated down 8.9% to 44.5 bcm, according to Cedigaz provisional estimates.

In a context of production shortfall, natural gas consumption declined from 52 bcm in 2013 to 48 bcm in 2014. In 2015, natural gas consumption stabilized despite the production decline as Egypt started importing gas after soaring power demand forced it to halt LNG exports.

With the first deliveries of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) from the US, let’s take a look at the fast changing energy landscape

Posted in Analysis, Energy Transition on

US shale gas: the first of five revolutions at the beginning of the XXI century

Three revolutions on the supply side: US shale gas, US shale oil and worldwide renewable

The US shale gas revolution is only the first (and most documented) of three revolutions that happened since the beginning of this century on the supply side. The world has changed thanks to the US shale revolutions (gas first and then oil) and a global quest for renewable. Those revolutions took over a decade but will shape the XXI century. Australia followed producing unconventional gas and is now also exporting it. It should take some time for unconventional oil and gas production to materialize in other places where the resource is available[1] (Argentina, Canada, China, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, etc.) but the US shale revolutions should be exported in a few other countries.

2015: A Third Year of Moderate Growth in Gas Demand

Posted in Analysis, Natural Gas Market, Natural Gas Statistics, Press release on

Natural gas demand grew by 1.6% in 2015 according to Cedigaz after having stagnated in 2014. However, this apparent, if modest, resumption of global gas market growth can be misleading as the higher growth rate is essentially the result of a weather driven recovery in the EU where demand rebounded by 4.5% after having dropped by 11% in 2014. For the rest of the world gas demand growth was actually lower than in 2014 (1.2% vs. 2%) and was pulled by a limited number of countries led by the US. The inability of natural gas demand to keep pace with an accelerated supply growth, led to an imbalance in the global gas market and to a price weakness which is expected to continue in the short and medium-term, amid a sluggish economic environment.

The year 2015 saw considerable changes in macroeconomic and price factors. Economic growth stood at 3.1%, lower than at any time since 2012 (3.3/3.4%) and also lower than the 10‐year trend (3.8%). This was the result of the relatively modest growth of the emerging countries (4% compared with 6% over ten years), although western countries’ growth rate exceeded the 10‐year average (1.9% compared to 1.5%).  International crude oil prices fluctuated to new lows, with Brent averaging 52/bl, down by 47% from the previous year.