International Gas Prices – May 7 , 2015

NBP: A return of the 2014 scenario?

NBP and Coal priceThe NBP price averaged €22.1/MWh ($7.0/MBtu) in April, down by 1% over March. There is greater downward pressure on the quotations for early May, which are at €20.9/MWh ($6.8/MBtu), close to the levels predicted by the markets for this summer (€20.4/MWh on average). A return of the 2014 scenario, with its sharp drop in prices during the summer (€16-17/MWh between June and August 2014) remains possible this year: demand is lower than in the past, especially in the power sector (20 bcm since 2012 compared to 30-35 bcm before then; the market share for natural gas has fallen from 41% in 2011 to 29%; renewable energies are up from 9 to 17%).

2014: A SECOND YEAR OF MODERATE GROWTH OF GLOBAL GAS ACTIVITY

2014 has been a very mixed year for natural gas, according to the First Estimates 2014 released by the International Association CEDIGAZ today. For the second consecutive year, gas demand slowed down in 2014, with subdued activity in the global gas industry at all stages of the chain.

Top1 consumming countriesGlobal natural gas consumption (including storage variations) was sluggish in 2014 and remained at a quite similar level than in 2013. This can be explained by increased competition between energies, especially coal, the economic slowdown (Europe, China, Russia…), geopolitical turmoil (Russia-Ukraine conflict) and the mild weather conditions which negatively impacted the expansion of gas demand (Europe, Asia). The global consumption trend showed regional disparities. Natural gas demand in North America and the Middle East continued to register strong expansion, but the growth in Asia slowed down, while consumption in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Europe declined dramatically. Plummeting consumption in Europe (- 10%) in particular weighed significantly on the overall trend.

CEDIGAZ’s Monthly LNG Trade Bulletin of April 2015

In Asia, LNG prices are declining

Asian LNG imports and pricesIn Asia, LNG imports decreased in February, as they did last year at the same period. China, Japan and South Korea imported 12.5 million tons compared to 14.7 million tons in January 2015. February year-on-year demand in these countries fell by 5.1% overall: the drop was pulled by a 25.6% decline in South Korean imports while Chinese’s grew by 10.9% and Japanese’s by 2.9%. As a consequence of the easing on Asian markets and the fall in oil prices, import prices continued to dwindle: they reached $13.3/mmbtu in Japan (including trades below $10/mmbtu), $10.4/mmbtu in China and $13.5 in South Korea. February prices represented a 20% year-on-year drop in Japan and South Korea and a fall of 11% in China.