NBP: Under temporary pressure
The NBP price averaged €23.4/MWh ($7.8/MBtu) in February, up nearly 14% compared to January. Two factors exerted upward pressure. First, taking the NBP to €25.7/MWh on Feb. 12, was the Dutch debate over Groningen and its level of production (66% of the country’s total) for 2015 and 2016. The latter was cut to 39.4 bcm from the initial target of 42.5 bcm, like in 2014. Proposals of 35 and 30 bcm were also heard. It was agreed to set the level at 16.5 bcm for first half 2015. Secondly, the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in late February, with threats of cutting off gas deliveries, also gave cause for concern. The fact that a trilateral meeting took place and a prepayment was made in early March, even if it was small ($15 M for about 50bcm), slightly alleviated market pressure. In early March, the pressure lifted slightly and prices fell to €22.9 /MWh ($7.5/MBtu), 2% lower than in January. The market anticipated an average summer price of €21.6/MWh ($7/MBtu).