Press release - Page 3

The latest statistics of the International Gas Association CEDIGAZ show a continued slowdown in gas demand growth

Posted in Natural Gas Market, Natural Gas Statistics, Press release on

CEDIGAZ’ Natural Gas in the World 2016 report confirms the provisional estimates published early May, showing a moderate natural gas demand growth in 2015 for the third year in a row. Global gas consumption grew by 1.5%, still below the ten-year growth rate of +2.2% despite low gas prices. The global marketed natural gas production growth was again led by the United States (shale gas).

Like in 2014, the natural gas expansion was constrained by some demand side factors which have offset the impact of low gas prices: intense competition with cheaper coal (and oil in China) in both industrialized and emerging markets, the development of nuclear and renewables, as well as increased energy efficiency, weak power generation growth and the sluggish economic context.

Natural Gas Will Play a Growing Role in a Gradually Decarbonising Energy System But Strong Political Action Is Currently Needed To Promote Coal-To-Gas Switching Worldwide

Posted in Analysis, Energy Transition, Gas-Coal Competition, Natural Gas Market, Outlook, Press release on

CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas Information, has just released its « Medium and Long Term Natural Gas Outlook 2016 ». This scenario, which incorporates key objectives of current and also planned national energy policies, highlights the growing role of natural gas as a bridge fuel towards a long-term increasingly renewable-based, efficient and sustainable energy system. Given the vast low-cost coal resources, the future expansion of natural gas in the global energy mix will be driven by the implementation of energy and environmental policies aiming to shift away from coal and oil to cleaner fuels within the context of a gradually decarbonising electricity system. In this scenario, the future global natural gas expansion is supported by strong supply growth, particularly of unconventional gas and LNG, in a context of rising prices as energy markets re-balance. CEDIGAZ Scenario’s trajectory is on a 3°C path, with energy-related CO2 emissions increasing by 0.3%/year on average, reaching almost 35 Gt over the 2030-2035 period.

2015: A Third Year of Moderate Growth in Gas Demand

Posted in Analysis, Natural Gas Market, Natural Gas Statistics, Press release on

Natural gas demand grew by 1.6% in 2015 according to Cedigaz after having stagnated in 2014. However, this apparent, if modest, resumption of global gas market growth can be misleading as the higher growth rate is essentially the result of a weather driven recovery in the EU where demand rebounded by 4.5% after having dropped by 11% in 2014. For the rest of the world gas demand growth was actually lower than in 2014 (1.2% vs. 2%) and was pulled by a limited number of countries led by the US. The inability of natural gas demand to keep pace with an accelerated supply growth, led to an imbalance in the global gas market and to a price weakness which is expected to continue in the short and medium-term, amid a sluggish economic environment.

The year 2015 saw considerable changes in macroeconomic and price factors. Economic growth stood at 3.1%, lower than at any time since 2012 (3.3/3.4%) and also lower than the 10‐year trend (3.8%). This was the result of the relatively modest growth of the emerging countries (4% compared with 6% over ten years), although western countries’ growth rate exceeded the 10‐year average (1.9% compared to 1.5%).  International crude oil prices fluctuated to new lows, with Brent averaging 52/bl, down by 47% from the previous year.